This holiday weekend’s horse racing schedule features 13 graded stakes across Churchill Downs, Del Mar, and Aqueduct, offering exciting opportunities to analyze horse racing odds.
Highlights include Hit Show’s bid for a division title in the Grade 2 Clark Stakes, valuable Kentucky Derby points in the Kentucky Jockey Club, and the season’s final Grade 1 events—the Hollywood Derby and Matriarch Stakes—on Del Mar’s turf.
Let’s analyze each race and find the best horse racing picks.
Falls City Stakes (G3) – Churchill Downs
Distance: 1 1/8 miles (Dirt) | Age: Fillies and Mares, 3-Year-Olds and Up
Thursday’s Falls City Stakes offers a compelling matchup between rising stars and established mares. Tarifa, a 3-year-old Bernardini filly trained by Brad Cox, has dominated this season with three consecutive Grade 2 victories, including a gutsy win in the Mother Goose. Her 88 Beyer Speed Figure places her among the best in the field, but this will be her first test against older mares, a challenge compounded by the extra weight she carries.
Her main rival, Musical Mischief, returns after pulling off a 16-1 upset in the Locust Grove (G2) two months ago. Trained by Michael McCarthy, this Into Mischief mare thrives at longer distances, making her a strong closer in a field that may lack early speed.
Longshot players should keep an eye on Loved, who finished fourth in the Spinster (G1) but consistently shows up against top-tier competition. Peignoir and Lexa, stepping into graded company for the first time, add intrigue as wildcard entries with improving form. With Tarifa’s pace-setting style likely dictating the race, the closers may find a strong setup if the favorite falters late.
Horse Racing Picks: Tarifa – The 3-year-old Bernardini filly boasts three consecutive Grade 2 wins, making her a top choice despite facing older mares for the first time.
Clark Stakes (G2) – Churchill Downs
Distance: 1 1/8 miles (Dirt) | Age: 3-Year-Olds and Up
Friday’s Clark Stakes serves as the highlight of Churchill Downs’ fall meet, attracting a competitive group of older dirt males. Hit Show has emerged as the standout, carrying a three-race winning streak into this Grade 2 contest. His victories in the Lukas Classic (G2) and Fayette Stakes (G2) showcased his ability to handle different track conditions, making him a versatile and reliable favorite for multi-race wagers.
Most Wanted, another Brad Cox trainee, steps up in class after a strong win in the Oklahoma Derby (G3). Known for his tactical speed, he offers bettors an interesting alternative if Hit Show faces pressure early. Crupi, trained by Todd Pletcher, brings consistency to the table, though his grinding style makes him better suited for a contested pace.
Closing specialists like Rattle N Roll add further depth to the field. A strong pace would favor his late kick, but his recent form has been inconsistent. Bettors must evaluate the likely pace scenario carefully, as this race features a mix of speed and stamina that could lead to a surprising outcome.
Horse Racing Picks: Hit Show – With a three-race winning streak, including victories in the Lukas Classic (G2) and Fayette Stakes (G2), he’s the standout in this competitive field.
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) – Churchill Downs
Distance: 1 1/16 miles (Dirt) | Age: 2-Year-Olds
This Kentucky Derby prep race offers a glimpse into the future stars of 2025. Jonathan’s Way, the Iroquois (G3) winner, headlines the field but must bounce back after a disappointing seventh-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His speed figures suggest he can rebound, but this race features several up-and-comers looking to make their mark.
He’s Not Joking, fresh off a commanding win in the Grey Stakes (G3) at Woodbine, has shown adaptability on various surfaces, making him a strong contender here. Tiztastic, a standout on turf earlier this year, returns to dirt and will be tested for stamina at this distance.
The field also includes promising colts like Render Judgment and Sonic Skidaddle, both lightly raced and brimming with potential. With a mix of front-runners and closers, the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes promises a thrilling finish, offering value for bettors willing to look beyond the favorites.
Horse Racing Picks: He’s Not Joking – Following a dominant Grey Stakes (G3) win, this colt’s adaptability makes him a strong contender.
Golden Rod Stakes (G2) – Churchill Downs
Distance: 1 1/16 miles (Dirt) | Age: 2-Year-Old Fillies
The Golden Rod Stakes features juvenile fillies vying for Kentucky Oaks points in one of the final races of the year. Good Cheer, trained by Brad Cox, leads the field as the heavy favorite. Undefeated in three starts, this Medaglia d’Oro filly boasts an impressive 86 Beyer Speed Figure from her win in the Rags to Riches Stakes.
Stablemate Éclatant also enters undefeated but steps into stakes competition for the first time. With two decisive wins under her belt, she’s a strong contender with untapped potential. Quietside, third in the Alcibiades (G1), has shown she can compete with top-tier fillies, making her a solid choice for bettors looking for exacta and trifecta options.
Longshots like Sturgeon Moon and Flash Wear round out the field, each coming off allowance victories. The likely pace scenario favors Good Cheer, but bettors should include Éclatant and Quietside in exotics for potential value.
Horse Racing Picks: Good Cheer – Undefeated in three starts, her impressive performances and top Beyer Speed Figure place her firmly as the favorite.
Seabiscuit Handicap (G2) – Del Mar
Distance: 1 1/16 miles (Turf) | Age: 3-Year-Olds and Up
The Seabiscuit Handicap features a competitive field of turf specialists, each looking to close out their season with a graded stakes victory. Almendares, a consistent performer in graded company, leads the field after runner-up finishes in both the Del Mar Mile (G2) and City of Hope Mile (G2). Trained by Philip D’Amato, this Havana Grey gelding has shown an ability to handle various pace setups, making him a strong contender in this diverse group.
Sumter, another major player, comes into the race off a hard-fought victory in the Lure Stakes at Santa Anita. His front-running style could prove advantageous, especially if the pace is moderate. Seal Team, who won the Twilight Derby (G2) earlier this season, also adds depth to the field. Although he finished fifth in the Lure Stakes, his tactical versatility and ability to handle the distance make him a threat.
Easter, the defending champion of this race, has had a mixed season but remains a key contender given his affinity for the Del Mar turf course. Chad Brown’s Redistricting brings East Coast flavor to the field after a strong second in the Knickerbocker (G3) at Aqueduct. With a blend of pace-setting types and strong closers, bettors should focus on analyzing how the early pace will develop. Almendares and Sumter offer solid win potential, while Easter and Seal Team are excellent options for exotic wagers.
Horse Racing Picks: Almendares – Consistent performances in graded company, including two runner-up finishes, highlight his strong chances.
Jimmy Durante Stakes (G3) – Del Mar
Distance: 1 mile (Turf) | Age: 2-Year-Old Fillies
The Jimmy Durante Stakes brings together a promising group of juvenile fillies for a competitive mile on the turf. Supa Speed, a standout early in the season, enters as a top contender despite her disappointing Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint performance. Trained by John Sadler, the Justify filly has shown strong form at Del Mar, including a runner-up finish in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf. Her tactical speed makes her a major threat in this field.
Sea Runner, trained by Tim Yakteen, broke her maiden impressively at Santa Anita in her last start. With her strong early speed and improving form, she looks poised to make an impact against this tougher group. Chilly Philly, another Yakteen trainee, adds depth to the race after her dominant maiden win in October. Acquitted, a Richard Mandella-trained filly, is an intriguing longshot making her stakes debut after showing promise in allowance company.
This wide-open field offers bettors plenty of opportunities for value. Supa Speed’s experience makes her the logical favorite, but improving fillies like Sea Runner and Chilly Philly could surprise. For those focused on exacta and trifecta wagers, this race provides an excellent chance to capitalize on longshots.
Horse Racing Picks: Supa Speed – Despite her Breeders’ Cup disappointment, her earlier turf form makes her a logical favorite.
Cecil B. DeMille Stakes (G3) – Del Mar
Distance: 1 mile (Turf) | Age: 2-Year-Old Colts
The Cecil B. DeMille Stakes showcases an exciting group of juvenile colts competing at a mile on the turf. Pali Kitten, a Vino Rosso colt trained by Doug O’Neill, stands out as the likely favorite despite a disappointing run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. His prior win in the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita demonstrated his ability to handle pressure and deliver a strong finish.
Scipio, trained by Richard Baltas, is another key contender with an improving profile. His recent fourth-place effort at Santa Anita showed promise, and he appears ready to step up in class. Sabertooth, a lightly raced colt by Grazen, also enters with potential after two solid allowance performances. Meanwhile, Resolve, a Jonathan Thomas-trained runner, broke his maiden at Del Mar in impressive fashion and brings a strong late kick that could be valuable in a race with plenty of early speed.
With no clear standout, this race offers bettors a chance to find value among the up-and-coming colts. Pali Kitten’s tactical speed makes him the horse to beat, but Resolve’s late-running style and Scipio’s steady improvement make them compelling alternatives for those seeking higher payouts.
Horse Racing Picks: Pali Kitten – His prior win in the Speakeasy Stakes and tactical speed position him as the top contender.
Hollywood Turf Cup (G2) – Del Mar
Distance: 1 1/2 miles (Turf) | Age: 3-Year-Olds and Up
The Hollywood Turf Cup stands as one of the weekend’s most challenging handicapping puzzles, bringing together proven stayers and late-season climbers. Truly Quality enters as the favorite following his back-to-back wins, including a strong performance in the Singspiel Stakes (G3) at Woodbine. His stamina and versatility make him a standout in this field, especially over the extended 1 1/2-mile distance.
Cabo Spirit, a seasoned campaigner with a Grade 2 win to his name, looks to rebound from a disappointing Breeders’ Cup Turf effort. While his recent form raises concerns, his class and prior success at this level make him a contender. Rockemperor, another proven performer, adds depth to the field despite a subpar showing in the John Henry Turf Championship (G2). Dicey Mo Chara, known for his consistency at longer distances, offers value as a potential upset candidate.
Nineeleventurbo, stepping into graded company for the first time, brings improving form and could factor into exotic wagers. Bettors should pay close attention to pace scenarios, as Truly Quality’s adaptability and Dicey Mo Chara’s ability to close into a strong pace could play decisive roles. This race offers opportunities for value seekers, particularly with several contenders coming off less-than-stellar performances.
Horse Racing Picks: Truly Quality – Back-to-back wins, including the Singspiel Stakes (G3), make him the horse to beat in this marathon event.
Comely Stakes (G3) – Aqueduct
Distance: 1 1/8 miles (Dirt) | Age: 3-Year-Old Fillies
The Comely Stakes at Aqueduct features a field of talented 3-year-old fillies, headlined by Life Talk, who earned her place in this lineup with a gritty second-place finish in the Demoiselle Stakes (G2). Trained by Todd Pletcher, the Gun Runner filly has been consistent, with a career-best showing earlier this year in the Seneca Overnight Stakes. Her late kick has been her trademark, but she faces formidable opposition here.
Alpine Princess, a Classic Empire filly trained by Brad Cox, enters with momentum after a commanding 9 3/4-length victory in the Remington Park Oaks. She has been improving steadily, and this will be her toughest test to date. Scalable, another Pletcher trainee, adds depth to the race with her earlier Monmouth Oaks (G3) triumph, although her last effort in the Cotillion Stakes (G1) left bettors questioning her current form.
Pretty Ana, trained by Chad Brown, nearly upset the Mother Goose Stakes (G2) earlier this year, finishing a close third. Her tactical speed makes her an intriguing contender in this competitive field. With strong representation from the leading trainers and a variety of running styles, bettors should weigh pace dynamics carefully. Life Talk and Alpine Princess lead the betting choices, but Pretty Ana offers a value play for exotic wagers.
Horse Racing Picks: Life Talk – Todd Pletcher’s consistent filly brings strong credentials and a competitive late kick to this race.
Cecil B. DeMille Stakes (G3) – Del Mar
Distance: 1 mile (Turf) | Age: 2-Year-Old Colts
The Cecil B. DeMille Stakes showcases juvenile colts vying for early turf dominance. Pali Kitten, a son of Vino Rosso trained by Doug O’Neill, is a standout contender despite a lackluster showing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Earlier, he captured the Speakeasy Stakes with a powerful front-running performance.
Scipio, trained by Richard Baltas, brings improving form after a solid fourth-place finish in allowance company at Santa Anita. Kale’s Angel, a Peter Miller trainee, has shown promise but will need to step up his game against this tougher field. Sabertooth, another contender, comes in after two consistent performances in allowance company.
Resolve, trained by Jonathan Thomas, could be the sleeper pick of the group. His maiden-breaking win earlier this month at Del Mar displayed a late kick that could work well in this race. With a mix of front-runners and closers, bettors should analyze the pace setup carefully. Pali Kitten and Scipio are logical choices, while Resolve offers a value play for trifectas and superfectas.
Horse Racing Picks: Pali Kitten – His prior win in the Speakeasy Stakes and tactical speed position him as the top contender.
Matriarch Stakes (G1) – Del Mar
Distance: 1 mile (Turf) | Age: Fillies and Mares, 3-Year-Olds and Up
The Matriarch Stakes brings together a stellar field of elite turf mares. Gina Romantica headlines the race with an impressive resume that includes three Grade 1 victories, most recently in the First Lady Stakes at Keeneland. Trained by Chad Brown, the Into Mischief mare has a versatile running style that allows her to adapt to various pace scenarios.
Nadette, a European import, enters with solid Group 2 credentials and could surprise on the U.S. circuit. Sacred Wish, a consistent runner in Grade 3 company, steps up in class but has shown she can compete at a high level. Aspen Grove, another European-bred, adds depth to the field but has struggled to find consistency in graded company.
Rounding out the field are Stay and Scam and Mouffy, who have both been competitive in listed stakes and could factor into exotic wagers. With Gina Romantica as the clear favorite, bettors should look for value in Nadette or Sacred Wish, particularly if the pace scenario sets up for late closers.
Horse Racing Picks: Gina Romantica – With three Grade 1 victories and tactical versatility, she’s the standout in this elite field.
Cardinal Stakes (G3) – Churchill Downs
Distance: 1 1/8 miles (Turf) | Age: Fillies and Mares, 3-Year-Olds and Up
The Cardinal Stakes brings together a field of 11 fillies and mares, none of whom have dominated the stakes scene in 2024, making this race a wide-open betting opportunity. Implicated, the 5-2 morning line favorite, is the only graded stakes winner in the field, having captured the Nassau (G2) at Woodbine earlier this year.
However, her recent form has been inconsistent, as she struggled in off-Lasix efforts at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland. Her ability to rebound will be a key question for bettors.
Quality Star, a 5-year-old Animal Kingdom mare, enters with a solid track record but only one victory in her last six starts. She showcased her talent earlier this year with a win in the Ellis Park Turf, but her form has been uneven since then.
If she can run back to her best, she could pose a significant threat. Magical Lute is another contender to watch, stepping back into stakes company after an impressive allowance effort on dirt. Her prior attempts on turf were respectable, and her versatility makes her an intriguing option for exotic wagers.
For those seeking value, Stir Crazy, trained by Mike Maker, brings solid allowance form into this contest. Although she has yet to win a stakes race, her consistent performances make her a viable longshot. Adrasteia and Dreaming of Mo, both lightly raced, are also worth considering for deeper trifecta or superfecta tickets.
With no clear standout in this field, the Cardinal Stakes promises to deliver strong payouts, especially for those who include improving longshots like Stir Crazy or Adrasteia in their tickets.
Horse Racing Picks: Implicated – The Nassau (G2) winner has graded stakes experience and enters as the 5-2 morning-line favorite.
Hollywood Derby (G1) – Del Mar
Distance: 1 1/8 miles (Turf) | Age: 3-Year-Olds
The Hollywood Derby serves as one of the final Grade 1 races of the year and brings together a competitive group of sophomore turf runners. Carson’s Run, the likely favorite, enters off a stellar campaign that includes wins in the Saratoga Derby Invitational (G1) and Jockey Club Derby Invitational (G3). Trained by Christophe Clément, the Cupid colt has demonstrated an impressive ability to accelerate late, making him a strong closer well-suited for Del Mar’s turf course.
Formidable Man, trained by Michael McCarthy, presents the biggest challenge to Carson’s Run. Undefeated at Del Mar, including a commanding win in the Del Mar Derby (G2), Formidable Man has shown both tactical speed and resilience under pressure. His affinity for the local track gives him a significant advantage over horses shipping in from other circuits.
Stay Hot, a consistent graded stakes performer, adds depth to the field with his runner-up finish in the Twilight Derby (G2). His ability to handle fast-paced scenarios makes him a viable contender for bettors focused on exactas and trifectas.
Other notable entrants include King of Gosford, a winner of the Let It Ride Stakes at Del Mar, and Donegal Momentum, a promising son of Uncle Mo who recently captured the Gio Ponti Stakes. Both bring solid form but will need to elevate their game to compete with the likes of Carson’s Run and Formidable Man.
Horse Racing Picks: Carson’s Run – With wins in the Saratoga Derby Invitational (G1) and Jockey Club Derby Invitational (G3), he’s the clear favorite among turf sophomores.
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