The 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic is shaping up to be a fast-paced race, with contenders like Fierceness, Arthur’s Ride, Next, and possibly City of Troy setting the early tempo.
For fans tracking the horse racing schedule and analyzing horse racing odds, the three Japanese entries – Forever Young, Derma Sotogake, and Ushba Tesoro – bring intriguing styles and potential strategies that could play out in their favor on the Del Mar track. Here’s how each Japanese contender might aim for victory given the expected race dynamics.
Forever Young (6-1 Odds): Key Decisions and Stalking Strategy
Forever Young, starting from post 1 with 6-1 morning line odds, faces an immediate challenge as jockey Ryusei Sakai will need to make a quick decision regarding positioning. Based on his experience in the Kentucky Derby, Sakai may choose between a rail-hugging trip that risks kickback from the Del Mar dirt or opting for a wider path to avoid flying debris.
Forever Young’s trainer, Yoshito Yahagi, is aware of the horse’s sensitivity to dirt kickback, which is why they’ve equipped him with a hood but no blinkers. This setup helps limit his reaction to stray dirt while allowing focus on his run.
Typically, Forever Young prefers a stalking or mid-pack position, which could work well in a 14-horse field, offering more space than he encountered in the Derby. When given a clean path, Forever Young has demonstrated an ability to unleash powerful, steady strides, as seen in his impressive performances in the Saudi Derby (G3) and UAE Derby (G2).
In these races, Sakai allowed him to swing four, five, or even six-wide around the final turn, where he then locked onto his target and pursued relentlessly to the finish. This Saturday, we can expect a similar approach: positioning outside in mid-pack before making his move around the far turn. With a clear line of sight to the leaders, Forever Young could turn this strategy into a formidable late push.
Derma Sotogake (20-1 Odds): Blinkers and Mid-Pack Positioning
Derma Sotogake, carrying 20-1 odds, will be equipped with blinkers for the first time, a new tactic from trainer Hidetaka Otonashi and jockey Christophe Lemaire. In the 2023 UAE Derby, Derma Sotogake led from start to finish, showcasing his ability to dominate from the front. However, since then, he’s shown that he can adapt to various racing styles.
In the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic, he didn’t require a lead to be competitive, demonstrating flexibility that could be valuable this weekend.
Lemaire is expected to position Derma Sotogake in mid-pack as the race begins, allowing him to conserve energy. Once they reach the backstretch, Lemaire will likely guide him outside, targeting the front-runners and preparing for a final challenge.
This strategy mirrors his approach in the previous Classic, where he stayed poised until the right moment to strike. Derma Sotogake’s form this season, combined with the rest he’s had over the summer and a preparatory race in September, suggests he’s ready to show his best performance.
Ushba Tesoro (12-1 Odds): A Veteran Closer
Ushba Tesoro, a seasoned 7-year-old with career earnings exceeding $16 million, enters the Classic at 12-1 odds, coming off a season of runner-up finishes. Though he hasn’t won this year, he’s consistently placed well against strong opponents like Señor Buscador, Laurel River, and William Barrows.
Known for his powerful closing ability, Ushba Tesoro’s running style may benefit most from the projected fast pace in this year’s Classic. He’s comfortable starting from the back or mid-pack, staying out of early jostling and reserving his energy for a sustained run in the final stages.
This strategy closely resembles his performance in the Nippon TV Hai at Funabashi, where he made a late move to great effect. Track conditions at Funabashi that day were reportedly challenging for closers, yet Ushba Tesoro still managed a strong finish.
Del Mar’s dirt track, which balances firmness with a sand-infused base, might suit his closing style, giving him a solid foundation to unleash a powerful final push.
Paths to Victory for Japan’s Breeders’ Cup Contenders
Each of these Japanese contenders brings unique strengths to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Forever Young’s tenacity, Derma Sotogake’s adaptability, and Ushba Tesoro’s closing power all create potential pathways to victory if the race plays to their strategies. With a competitive field and intense early pace expected, these horses could surprise bettors and fans alike on Saturday at Del Mar.
