The Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) is the pinnacle of North American horse racing in the second half of the year. This 1 1/4-mile race with a $7 million purse plays a significant role in determining Horse of the Year.
The 2024 edition, set for November 2 at Del Mar, marks the 41st running of this iconic race. By examining historical trends from the past 25 editions (1999-2023), bettors can gain valuable insights into what to look for in a potential Classic winner.
Betting on Favorites: A Smart Strategy?
While longshots occasionally make headlines, recent history shows that betting on favorites has been a reliable strategy in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Seven favorites have won in the last 20 editions, and nine of the past 10 winners went off at odds of less than 5-1. The average winning odds since 1999 are 7.5-1, with a median of 4.4-1. When it comes to horse racing odds for the Classic, staying close to the logical favorites has often paid off.
Recent Form Is Key
An analysis of Breeders’ Cup Classic winners from the past 25 years reveals that top contenders usually enter the race in peak form. The winning horses between June and the Breeders’ Cup compiled a 58.2% win rate from 79 starts and finished in the top three 93.7% of the time.
In the last decade, the success rate improved even further, with 22 wins from 30 starts, translating to a 73.3% win percentage. Horses that win or finish second in their final prep race are the ones to watch, as inconsistent runners rarely succeed at this level.
Tactical Speed is a Significant Factor
While closers have won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the past, having tactical speed has been an advantage in recent years. Eleven of the last 25 winners raced on or near the lead, and none of the last 12 winners were more than 3 1/2 lengths behind after the first quarter-mile. This trend suggests that horses with early speed or those that can stay near the front have a better chance of taking home the prize.
The Importance of Class and Experience
The Breeders’ Cup Classic is not a race for up-and-comers. Of the last 25 winners, 23 were already proven Grade 1 or Group 1 winners. Horses that rise to the occasion at the Breeders’ Cup have already established themselves as elite competitors. In fact, the past 20 winners were all established stars, further underscoring the importance of prior top-level experience.
Location and Preparation Matter
While the race location changes year to year, preparation is key. Twelve of the last 25 Breeders’ Cup Classic winners prepped in New York, despite most editions of the race being held in California. Del Mar and Santa Anita have hosted 11 of the last 25 Breeders’ Cups, and horses prepping in New York have frequently traveled well to win on California dirt.
The California Crown Stakes (formerly the Awesome Again Stakes) has also been a successful prep, with five winners emerging from that race in the past 25 years.
2024 Contenders to Watch
Looking ahead to the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic, several key horses have stood out through the horse racing schedule. Travers Stakes (G1) winner Fierceness is expected to be a top betting choice. With three Grade 1 wins and excellent form, he fits the profile of a likely winner.
European invader City of Troy also brings strong credentials, although this will be his first race on dirt. Despite positive trends, bettors should exercise caution as European horses have had limited success in the Classic.
Japanese contenders, such as Forever Young and Ushba Tesoro, will also be in the mix. Forever Young, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby and recently won the Japan Dirt Classic, has shown enough class to be a strong contender. Meanwhile, Ushba Tesoro, a Group 1 winner and 2023 Dubai World Cup champion, could be a longshot worth considering, especially with his proven form.
Finally, American runners like Highland Falls and Newgate are also on the radar. Highland Falls, with two wins and a Grade 1 victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, has shown tactical speed and consistency. Newgate, trained by Bob Baffert, could surprise with a strong performance, especially after a recent third-place finish in the California Crown.
